What’s happened in Venezuela?

The United States has carried out a military operation in Venezuela that culminated in the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and their subsequent transfer to the United States to face criminal charges. The operation included selective air strikes on military targets and resulted in a political turning point following months of tension between the two countries.

The US authorities have indicated that the aim is to facilitate an orderly political transition, although the situation on the ground remains uncertain, often with contradictory messages.

Political situation: uncertainty, but no immediate collapse

The country is now entering a phase involving a complex transition, with a fragile balance between institutional continuity and political change. Despite the initial discourse of the United States regarding direct control over the process, there is no sustained US military presence in the country and a large number of the power structures remain operational.

Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez has become its leader, and everything suggests that Washington could opt for a pragmatic solution, working with the current authorities to prevent a scenario featuring chaos and civil conflict. 

Impact on the markets

Despite the forcefulness of the headlines, our reading of the situation points to caution but calm. These kinds of operations, which are of an exceptional nature, don’t necessarily lead to an immediate structural change in the global economic order.

The financial markets tend to react with moderation in the event of geopolitical events when:

• there is no direct or immediate impact on global growth, an
• there are no significant disruptions to the key supply chains.

This is, for the time being, the current situation.

What about oil? A key political factor, albeit with a limited effect on the markets

Oil lies at the core of the political debate, but it isn’t the main risk factor for the markets at the moment. Although Venezuela has huge reserves, its short-term ability to influence the price of crude oil is limited.

Despite the fact that the United States has a strategic interest in progressively standardising the Venezuelan energy sector, any improvement will be slow and gradual, given that it will require political stability, significant investments and time. Furthermore, periods of geopolitical tension tend to have one-off and short-term effects on oil prices.

Against a global backdrop characterised by a plentiful supply of crude oil, the changes in Venezuela are unlikely to alter the core scenario of the energy market in the short term.

Geopolitics: what to watch out for

From a geopolitical standpoint, the intervention will reinforce the leadership of the United States in Latin America, together with its ability to influence its strategic resources.

If the transition proves successful, it could give itgreater room for manoeuvre in its relations with China and Russia, with the risk of a potential reaction from the latter countries (one that seems unlikely).

The geopolitical risk exists, but it’s perceived as limited and controllable. 

Conclusions

We believe that the events in Venezuela are politically relevant, but that they won’t significantly alter the central market scenario in 2026.

• In the short term, the impact on oil and inflation will be limited and gradual.
• In the longer term, if the oil supply gradually increases, it should help to bring about a further fall in inflation and exert downward pressure on yields.
• The global markets continue to be guided by structural factors such as growth, monetary policy and the global balance between supply and demand.

Despite this controlled baseline scenario, it will be essential to closely monitor political and geopolitical developments, particularly with regard to a potential response from China or Russia, which could generate occasional periods of volatility.